Maybe you recognize that line from when Bill Murray was chasing a gopher around at Bush Hill Country Club in Caddyshack after the gopher bit his hand. I think the Yankees have had their collective hand bit by a bunch of little gophers I'd like to call "2-1 losses" and "Blown opportunities" and it's time for them to "play for keeps" if you will.
Say what you want about having to win a certain amount of games over the next month (see my first post), this series is a must. The ghosts of Yankees past need to make one more appearance for Boston's last trip into The House that Ruth Built After He Was Sold to Fund a Broadway Play, or put simply, THTRBAHWSTFABP.
There are four scenarios that can happen here, all yielding drastically different results from "out of the race" to "there is still a pulse." The first is that the Yankees get swept, in which they would be eight games behind Boston with 29 games to go, and then it might be time to look forward to Phil Hughes' blogs on how much he likes the new season of The Office. The next is if they win one game, resulting in being six games back and would need a huge collapse by Boston (a la the '07 Mets) or an incredible run (a la the '07 Rockies) to make it. The aforementioned scenarios give the Yankees a zero to 15 percent chance of making the playoffs, so let's look at the bright side shall we.
The Yankees could take two out of three and be four games back, and with another series versus Boston and another six games versus Tampa Bay, I would say they have a good as shot as anyone still in the race. Or the Yanks could play what I like to call "Man Up Baseball" and take three out of three versus Boston and wind up only two games back and put the whole baseball world in a state of either "Oh S***, here come the Yankees" or "Yup, we knew this was going to happen." Being two games back on the heels of a three game sweep of Boston would not only scare every team, but finally for once in the last 130 games, put some fire into the club and optimism into the fans' hearts.
Now the plan is laid out, the optimal outcome has been established, the remaining question; "How do we do it?"
Game 1: Pettitte/Wakefield. The best way we can start this series in terms of pitching match ups. Pettitte dominates the Sox and just got off one of his strongest starts of the season. Wakefield on the other hand has a close to 7 ERA and is 0-1 versus the Yankees this season. With the way the bats have been, and a needed day off for the bullpen yesterday this is a big win for the Yankees.
Game 2: Byrd/Ponson. I wish I could put a picture of the face I am making looking at this match up. The last time I remember Byrd facing the Yankees was when we were facing the Indians in last year's playoffs and he went from "Guy who looks like a shady dealer from The Wire" to "The next coming of Nolan Ryan who just eliminated us from the playoffs." But if we have one thing going for us, it's that Ponson got his (really) bad start out of the way last week, I mean it was really bad. And he's due for another stifling performance at home, especially knowing Carl Pavano may be sniffing his spot out of the rotation. <<< If there were odds that anyone would be writing that scenario in spring training, I would have to say it would be in the realm of millions to one.
Game 3: Mussina/Lester. A nice little afternoon encore for the series. This pitching match up could not be more exciting. The Yankees best pitcher and MVP this season against boy wonder of the Red Sox, and not to mention having a terrific season himself. Both pitchers have sub 3.00 ERA's during day games and this one will not disappoint. The only way this series could end better is if the Yanks got a walk off home run, basically stamping their passport into the postseason on adrenaline, mojo, and confidence alone.
8.19.2008
Half a Dozen Big Ones
Since my inaugural post where I said the Yankees had to play .667 baseball to make the playoffs, they have played .500 baseball, but won the last two so it's promising. The next six games are critical in determining their post season chances. We've got six away games but the first three are against a Toronto team that if they sweep us, would put us in fourth and effectively end the season, motivation enough for the team to play their absolute hearts out. Then another three versus a better, but still not good Orioles team who the Yankees have been struggling against all season for some reason. To be on track for that 92 win number the Yankees have to win 5 out of 6 before their day off and then ultra critical, season do or die series versus Boston, and here's why I think they can do it.
In Toronto it looks like tonight might be our allotted one loss. We have Rasner on the hill, and despite his decent start last week we still lost, and he still sucks. And Toronto has Burnett going, who hasn't lost a game in over a month now. If the Yankees can get back to working the count and making Burnett throw strikes, we may be able to pull one off. Tomorrow night we've got Pettitte who has not won since July 26, but is going against an unknown James Purcey, could be a double digit game for the Yanks, and a much needed pick me up for Andy. Then for the series finale on Thursday it's Ponson versus Halladay. This is the clincher right here, Ponson has SO surprisingly thrown well, but the team has failed to score runs for him. Versus Halladay all we can ask of Ponson is to give us his best 7 innings and hope we can win by a run or two.
Then off to Baltimore where we should have a nice win on Friday night to start things off with Moose pitching against another unknown. Saturday things get a little dicey where it looks like we may throw Pavano out on the hill. Now you know how I feel about old Carl, and he is just too easy to pick on so I will take the high road. I am saying that if Carl comes in Saturday and reels off his first win, and then able to get 4 more in 5 starts he has this season, and the Yankees make the playoffs, he is absolved in my mind of all his misgivings over the past 4 years. I would also command that he is not on the post season roster. I think there is a better chance of me fathering Jennifer Aniston's children than any of the Pavano scenarios though. And on Sunday for the 6 game finale, Rasner is going against Guthrie, who clobbered us last time we played Baltimore. So going off statistics and previous match ups, splitting these six games down the middle seems more likely, but hey, it's playoff time and we need the Yanks to show us some magic if we want to have some hope.
As for the offense, I think we saw a lot of good things in the last game versus Kansas City that hopefully carry over. Batters working the count, A-Rod and some of the big bats taking it deep. And guys like Jeter, Gardner and Robbie coming up with extra base hits and smart base running. Simple things like that is all we need, plus our pitchers keeping us in the game to head into that Boston series with a full head of steam and our strong starters going.
In Toronto it looks like tonight might be our allotted one loss. We have Rasner on the hill, and despite his decent start last week we still lost, and he still sucks. And Toronto has Burnett going, who hasn't lost a game in over a month now. If the Yankees can get back to working the count and making Burnett throw strikes, we may be able to pull one off. Tomorrow night we've got Pettitte who has not won since July 26, but is going against an unknown James Purcey, could be a double digit game for the Yanks, and a much needed pick me up for Andy. Then for the series finale on Thursday it's Ponson versus Halladay. This is the clincher right here, Ponson has SO surprisingly thrown well, but the team has failed to score runs for him. Versus Halladay all we can ask of Ponson is to give us his best 7 innings and hope we can win by a run or two.
Then off to Baltimore where we should have a nice win on Friday night to start things off with Moose pitching against another unknown. Saturday things get a little dicey where it looks like we may throw Pavano out on the hill. Now you know how I feel about old Carl, and he is just too easy to pick on so I will take the high road. I am saying that if Carl comes in Saturday and reels off his first win, and then able to get 4 more in 5 starts he has this season, and the Yankees make the playoffs, he is absolved in my mind of all his misgivings over the past 4 years. I would also command that he is not on the post season roster. I think there is a better chance of me fathering Jennifer Aniston's children than any of the Pavano scenarios though. And on Sunday for the 6 game finale, Rasner is going against Guthrie, who clobbered us last time we played Baltimore. So going off statistics and previous match ups, splitting these six games down the middle seems more likely, but hey, it's playoff time and we need the Yanks to show us some magic if we want to have some hope.
As for the offense, I think we saw a lot of good things in the last game versus Kansas City that hopefully carry over. Batters working the count, A-Rod and some of the big bats taking it deep. And guys like Jeter, Gardner and Robbie coming up with extra base hits and smart base running. Simple things like that is all we need, plus our pitchers keeping us in the game to head into that Boston series with a full head of steam and our strong starters going.
Accountability
While reading Greg Cohen's blog this morning I found a quote that I think sums up a lot of the problems in baseball. And I'm not talking about steroids, I'm talking about the financial and lack of a business model kind of problems that have not and will not change in the foreseeable future. Here is the quote from Wallace Matthews in Newsday;
"(Torre) wasn't the problem with this team last year any more than Girardi is the problem with it this year."
That should not be any sort of surprise to anyone who really follows and knows the game of baseball.
Now before I start this rant I would like to emphasize that I am not trivializing the position of manager, rather defending it. Think about the manager's role on a baseball team and where his value is most important. Is it in baseball knowledge, is it in player rotation, it is in evaluating and assessing skill levels? Yes somewhat to all of those, but almost more than any other sport in baseball a manager's role is to be a leader, and to fire his team up when they need a boost, and to be someone the players want to succeed for, because they feel bad failing in front of him.
Football, hockey, basketball all have coaches, baseball has managers. A baseball fanatic and your above average observer knows when is the right time to hit and run, when to run on a pitch, when to steal and when not to steal third, when to bring in the lefty, when to walk a batter. Hell, John Sterling tells the fans every night what the runners will be doing, who Joe will bring in next, who is going to pinch hit before it happens, because it's a game of statistics and if you follow the stats and know the situations you're in, you make the logical moves. Of course there are some exceptions and questionable moves, but generally baseball managers can go by the numbers. Whereas in basketball and hockey, you need a coach to constantly and on the fly change players to optimize player match ups, who can afford to foul, to bring an enforcer in and to actually hold practices to go over pick and roll plays, or penalty killing scenarios. In baseball, players have been practicing and know what to do in a bunting situation since they were in junior high, and God forbid they go out before a game and take some grounders, you know the announcers will bring it up later on and praise them as if they were working overtime at the local mining plant.
Yet when a team is struggling or in a rut where does the blame fall? Sure a player may be ridiculed for silly injuries, heckled for being an idiot, or booed for poor performance. But when it comes to earning your pay, that's where baseball fails. In all those aforementioned scenarios the next season you don't see the team getting rid of the left fielder hitting .220 they just signed for 5 years and $50 million unless they trade him, you see the manager getting the ax. Unlike any real job or business in the U.S.A., baseball has NO accountability.
So Wallace Matthews is right, Torre wasn't the problem with the team the past few years just like Girardi isn't the problem with this years team. Firing Torre doesn't undo the incredible decline in Giambi's numbers since he got here, firing Girardi isn't going to undo the slump Melky had this season. Yet they will take the brunt of the blame, and sure I know that these guys get booed and talked about, but where and when it matters, in the paycheck, who really takes the hit? No matter that Pavano has played in 19 games and lost more games than he's won on the Yankees for 4 years, he's still collecting $40 million dollars for it. In football a player like that is cut in a heartbeat.
So while managers come and go, as long as baseball doesn't catch up with what we do here in the real world, your Carl Pavanos will stay and suck.
"(Torre) wasn't the problem with this team last year any more than Girardi is the problem with it this year."
That should not be any sort of surprise to anyone who really follows and knows the game of baseball.
Now before I start this rant I would like to emphasize that I am not trivializing the position of manager, rather defending it. Think about the manager's role on a baseball team and where his value is most important. Is it in baseball knowledge, is it in player rotation, it is in evaluating and assessing skill levels? Yes somewhat to all of those, but almost more than any other sport in baseball a manager's role is to be a leader, and to fire his team up when they need a boost, and to be someone the players want to succeed for, because they feel bad failing in front of him.
Football, hockey, basketball all have coaches, baseball has managers. A baseball fanatic and your above average observer knows when is the right time to hit and run, when to run on a pitch, when to steal and when not to steal third, when to bring in the lefty, when to walk a batter. Hell, John Sterling tells the fans every night what the runners will be doing, who Joe will bring in next, who is going to pinch hit before it happens, because it's a game of statistics and if you follow the stats and know the situations you're in, you make the logical moves. Of course there are some exceptions and questionable moves, but generally baseball managers can go by the numbers. Whereas in basketball and hockey, you need a coach to constantly and on the fly change players to optimize player match ups, who can afford to foul, to bring an enforcer in and to actually hold practices to go over pick and roll plays, or penalty killing scenarios. In baseball, players have been practicing and know what to do in a bunting situation since they were in junior high, and God forbid they go out before a game and take some grounders, you know the announcers will bring it up later on and praise them as if they were working overtime at the local mining plant.
Yet when a team is struggling or in a rut where does the blame fall? Sure a player may be ridiculed for silly injuries, heckled for being an idiot, or booed for poor performance. But when it comes to earning your pay, that's where baseball fails. In all those aforementioned scenarios the next season you don't see the team getting rid of the left fielder hitting .220 they just signed for 5 years and $50 million unless they trade him, you see the manager getting the ax. Unlike any real job or business in the U.S.A., baseball has NO accountability.
So Wallace Matthews is right, Torre wasn't the problem with the team the past few years just like Girardi isn't the problem with this years team. Firing Torre doesn't undo the incredible decline in Giambi's numbers since he got here, firing Girardi isn't going to undo the slump Melky had this season. Yet they will take the brunt of the blame, and sure I know that these guys get booed and talked about, but where and when it matters, in the paycheck, who really takes the hit? No matter that Pavano has played in 19 games and lost more games than he's won on the Yankees for 4 years, he's still collecting $40 million dollars for it. In football a player like that is cut in a heartbeat.
So while managers come and go, as long as baseball doesn't catch up with what we do here in the real world, your Carl Pavanos will stay and suck.
8.14.2008
Yankees vs. Patriots
No this isn't an argument about who loves America more, or the difference between people who think Michael Phelps is the greatest athlete ever or not. No, here I want to talk about how similar these teams assembled their monstrous rosters over the past half decade plus, but how they yielded such different results.
This post came off the heels of reading that John Lynch is heading to New England to be the newest former all-star coming to the NFL's greatest superpower for a twilight tour, hoping he will get a ring at the end of it. I went and looked back at old New England rosters since 2003 and compared some of the players to how the Yankees have tended to put together their team (***Note: Before 2008, or the "Building from Within" era.)
What I found was that the Patriots have a trend of signing players who have at one point been the most dominant players in their prime, but are (in all but one or 2 cases) well past their prime. Follow my logic: Rodney Harrison (2 time pro bowler with Chargers.), Junior Seau (12 time pro bowler with Chargers.), Corey Dillon (4 time pro bowler with Bengals.), Vinny Testaverde (Heisman winner and 2 time pro bowler.), Doug Flutie (Heisman winner, pro bowler and 3 time Canadian MVP.), and Randy Moss (5 time pro bowler before joining the Pats.)
Now think about every Yankee free agent signing over the past 7 years or so. I think every one of those guys have had career accomplishments and awards that made every fan salivate and look forward to the upcoming season. And I wonder to myself, how come the Patriots have perfected the art of getting big names who are going to perform maybe half as good as they used to be, and win championships. And how the Yankees get these guys and they somehow make them worse.
It all has to do with expectation. Rodney Harrison was going to be the vocal leader and team captain, setting an example for the young defensive backfield. Junior Seau had just about the same role, being named one of the team's 7 captains. Corey Dillon was signed by the Pats because they wanted to give him a second chance after his negative attitude got him run out of Cincinnati. Vinny Testaverde and Doug Flutie were last minute additions to play backup to Tom Brady. And Randy Moss was another gamble hoping that his 2 bad years in Oakland were a fluke and that he could go back to his level of play when he was in Minnesota, they were lucky.
On the other hand, the Yankees sign/trade for guys like Giambi, Brown, Mussina, Farnsworth, Abreu, the list goes on. And they get them AFTER they have already won an MVP or finished a career season, hoping they can keep up that pace, even late in their career.
I think they are going in the right direction now, by trying to develop players into those MVP and award winning caliber players and then, after they have reached their prime, trade them or let them go to the next type of New Engla... ahem, York Yankees.
This post came off the heels of reading that John Lynch is heading to New England to be the newest former all-star coming to the NFL's greatest superpower for a twilight tour, hoping he will get a ring at the end of it. I went and looked back at old New England rosters since 2003 and compared some of the players to how the Yankees have tended to put together their team (***Note: Before 2008, or the "Building from Within" era.)
What I found was that the Patriots have a trend of signing players who have at one point been the most dominant players in their prime, but are (in all but one or 2 cases) well past their prime. Follow my logic: Rodney Harrison (2 time pro bowler with Chargers.), Junior Seau (12 time pro bowler with Chargers.), Corey Dillon (4 time pro bowler with Bengals.), Vinny Testaverde (Heisman winner and 2 time pro bowler.), Doug Flutie (Heisman winner, pro bowler and 3 time Canadian MVP.), and Randy Moss (5 time pro bowler before joining the Pats.)
Now think about every Yankee free agent signing over the past 7 years or so. I think every one of those guys have had career accomplishments and awards that made every fan salivate and look forward to the upcoming season. And I wonder to myself, how come the Patriots have perfected the art of getting big names who are going to perform maybe half as good as they used to be, and win championships. And how the Yankees get these guys and they somehow make them worse.
It all has to do with expectation. Rodney Harrison was going to be the vocal leader and team captain, setting an example for the young defensive backfield. Junior Seau had just about the same role, being named one of the team's 7 captains. Corey Dillon was signed by the Pats because they wanted to give him a second chance after his negative attitude got him run out of Cincinnati. Vinny Testaverde and Doug Flutie were last minute additions to play backup to Tom Brady. And Randy Moss was another gamble hoping that his 2 bad years in Oakland were a fluke and that he could go back to his level of play when he was in Minnesota, they were lucky.
On the other hand, the Yankees sign/trade for guys like Giambi, Brown, Mussina, Farnsworth, Abreu, the list goes on. And they get them AFTER they have already won an MVP or finished a career season, hoping they can keep up that pace, even late in their career.
I think they are going in the right direction now, by trying to develop players into those MVP and award winning caliber players and then, after they have reached their prime, trade them or let them go to the next type of New Engla... ahem, York Yankees.
T Minus 13
Well after all of that yesterday, the Yanks started off their 42 game month and a half of truth on the wrong foot. The 4-2 loss to Minnesota was the final straw in the mind of one of my favorite Yankee sites, Nomaas.org, who conceded that the Yankees are done. Now I refuse to do that until the season is over or they are mathematically eliminated, and even then I may try and rationalize.
So much for the lineup putting fear in Minnesota, one of our runs scored was on a third out strikeout that got away from the catcher. I don't understand how Nady, Abreu, A-Rod, Giambi does not put fear in the eyes of opposing teams. It seems like when we play Anaheim, Teixiera and Vlad are enough to overshadow the other 7 decent hitters in that lineup.
Rasner was not terrible, Cano made an inexcusable error which led to a 3 run homer. But the bullpen came in and pitched 4 strong innings and gave the offense a chance to come back, a futile yet honorable attempt. At least this weekend we play the Royals, and I think if we sweep them we are back in the game, but until then, 13 losses until the Yankees can no longer reach that 92 win number.
So much for the lineup putting fear in Minnesota, one of our runs scored was on a third out strikeout that got away from the catcher. I don't understand how Nady, Abreu, A-Rod, Giambi does not put fear in the eyes of opposing teams. It seems like when we play Anaheim, Teixiera and Vlad are enough to overshadow the other 7 decent hitters in that lineup.
Rasner was not terrible, Cano made an inexcusable error which led to a 3 run homer. But the bullpen came in and pitched 4 strong innings and gave the offense a chance to come back, a futile yet honorable attempt. At least this weekend we play the Royals, and I think if we sweep them we are back in the game, but until then, 13 losses until the Yankees can no longer reach that 92 win number.
8.13.2008
42 Games in 47 Days
Welcome to The Pennant Chase, and what an appropriate time for our first post. The Yankees have their backs to the wall and are certainly in a "must win" mentality for this month and a half.
With 42 games left in the season and the Yankees 5 back in the wild card and 8 in the division, you have to believe that 92 wins is probably the benchmark the Yankees will need to take the wild card. That being said, with their current 64-56 record the Yankees need to play .667 ball, or go 28-14 in the final stretch.
That starts today with an afternoon game versus Minnesota. I like the lineup we have today, even/especially (gasp!) with Jeter out of the lineup. Damon, Abreu, A-Rod, Giambi and Nady are a solid top 5 of the order that should get on base, put the ball in play with some pop, and keep the pitcher on his toes. And our final 4 of Cano, Pudge, Betemit and Melky are a bottom four that most (not necessarily me) teams would kill for. The problem here is the arm we've got on the hill. Rasner has several guarantees on the day he pitches and they include: <6 innings, an overworked bullpen, the YES Network receiving their lowest ratings of the week, and a loss in the standings.
Now as for the rest of the season's lineup assuming Jeter comes back quick, here is how I would do it, and I expect about a million Jeter lovers to vehemently disagree, pout and slam their keyboards. Damon, Nady, Abreu, A-Rod, Giambi, Cano, Jeter, Pudge and Christian. We NEED people on base, and Jeter is killing us at the top of the order. With that lineup those first 5 batters have OBP's close to .400. With Jeter mixed into the late middle to bottom order of the lineup I think that would be just what we need to wake up the whole roster and wake up the sleeping monster that is the Yankees' lineup. And Melky obviously needs to sit. Christian is not much better, but I don't think we have the expectation that he will be. Christian will be better in the outfield, and when he gets on base it's a guaranteed RISP situation with his speed, for someone like Damon and Nady to pick the team up with.
As far as pitching goes, the Yankees are going to need to start winning games by 5 or 6 runs, where my change in lineup proposal comes in. With the little time we have left, quality starts by Ponson and Moose can not be put to waste, and that can not only be helped by the lineup but also the bullpen. Night after night when the bullpen is either trying to stop the bleeding on a 1 or 2 run defecit, trying to preserve a tie, or hold on to a slim 1 or 2 run lead, you can see how that pressure is going to wear. Imagine every night going into the 7th or 8th inning, and the offense NEEDS to score 6 runs to win the game, this is the type of pressure the bullpen is imposed with because of the anemic offense.
It is not going to be an easy task to win 2/3 of the games, but I think a lineup change is the first thing we need to take a step in the right direction. I don't dislike Jeter, I just go off of performance so far this season and I think that is the optimal set of players to score runs. Girardi needs to man up and start showing he is the manager, make some moves, make some noise, and prove to fans like us that they don't want to party like it's 1993.
With 42 games left in the season and the Yankees 5 back in the wild card and 8 in the division, you have to believe that 92 wins is probably the benchmark the Yankees will need to take the wild card. That being said, with their current 64-56 record the Yankees need to play .667 ball, or go 28-14 in the final stretch.
That starts today with an afternoon game versus Minnesota. I like the lineup we have today, even/especially (gasp!) with Jeter out of the lineup. Damon, Abreu, A-Rod, Giambi and Nady are a solid top 5 of the order that should get on base, put the ball in play with some pop, and keep the pitcher on his toes. And our final 4 of Cano, Pudge, Betemit and Melky are a bottom four that most (not necessarily me) teams would kill for. The problem here is the arm we've got on the hill. Rasner has several guarantees on the day he pitches and they include: <6 innings, an overworked bullpen, the YES Network receiving their lowest ratings of the week, and a loss in the standings.
Now as for the rest of the season's lineup assuming Jeter comes back quick, here is how I would do it, and I expect about a million Jeter lovers to vehemently disagree, pout and slam their keyboards. Damon, Nady, Abreu, A-Rod, Giambi, Cano, Jeter, Pudge and Christian. We NEED people on base, and Jeter is killing us at the top of the order. With that lineup those first 5 batters have OBP's close to .400. With Jeter mixed into the late middle to bottom order of the lineup I think that would be just what we need to wake up the whole roster and wake up the sleeping monster that is the Yankees' lineup. And Melky obviously needs to sit. Christian is not much better, but I don't think we have the expectation that he will be. Christian will be better in the outfield, and when he gets on base it's a guaranteed RISP situation with his speed, for someone like Damon and Nady to pick the team up with.
As far as pitching goes, the Yankees are going to need to start winning games by 5 or 6 runs, where my change in lineup proposal comes in. With the little time we have left, quality starts by Ponson and Moose can not be put to waste, and that can not only be helped by the lineup but also the bullpen. Night after night when the bullpen is either trying to stop the bleeding on a 1 or 2 run defecit, trying to preserve a tie, or hold on to a slim 1 or 2 run lead, you can see how that pressure is going to wear. Imagine every night going into the 7th or 8th inning, and the offense NEEDS to score 6 runs to win the game, this is the type of pressure the bullpen is imposed with because of the anemic offense.
It is not going to be an easy task to win 2/3 of the games, but I think a lineup change is the first thing we need to take a step in the right direction. I don't dislike Jeter, I just go off of performance so far this season and I think that is the optimal set of players to score runs. Girardi needs to man up and start showing he is the manager, make some moves, make some noise, and prove to fans like us that they don't want to party like it's 1993.
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