Rationalizing

After each excruciating loss in the past 2 months (and let me define excruciating as blowing large leads and grounding into game ending or 9th inning double plays, or 1 run losses.) I have been close to leaving the Yankees for dead. But then they'll go ahead and win a sloppy game and I find myself rationalizing scenarios in which they could win it all. Hell, even last night I found myself talking about how they could end up taking the division from the Rays. But with 23 games to go, I am making my final stance, and although I won't give up until they are mathematically eliminated, if they don't reach this benchmark it's all but over.

At 75-64 with 23 games to go, the Yankees are chasing the wild card leading Red Sox. So let's find a reasonable win number that would put the Yankees in the playoffs. 92 wins, as I declared earlier in the season is not enough. If the Yankees got in with 92 wins, let's say Boston had 92 also but the Yankees get the tie breaker, the Red Sox would need to go 10-13 over their last 23 for that to happen, which I don't see. I think 94 is what the Yankees NEED to reach to make the playoffs. This would mandate a 19-4 record over their last 23, and for the Red Sox to play 12-11 or worse, a sort of reasonable scenario. Looking at their upcoming schedule, here's how I see it happening:

1 win @ Tampa (1-0)
3 wins @ Seattle (4-0)
1 win and 2 losses@ LA (5-2)
3 wins vs. Tampa (8-2) *We are undefeated this season at home vs. Tampa
3 wins and 1 loss vs. White Sox (11-3)
3 wins vs. Baltimore (14-3)
2 wins and one loss @ Toronto (16-4)
3 wins @ Boston (19-4)

This run seems pretty improbable, but looking at it even further we see that they don't need any more streaks bigger than 5 wins in a row before they can take a loss and still be on pace, very doable. That last series in Fenway is going to be the hardest, but hey why not? I think a series sweep, thus knocking the Sox out of the playoffs, ruining Pedroia's MVP chances, and showing everyone despite the S#!^ year we've had, we still got the magic. And I think would also put the fear in that pompus A$$#@ city that we are the Yankees, and we have owned your ass for almost 100 years, and yupp, we still do.